“The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.” Never was Yeats' quote more appropriate than in this election. Think Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.
In this election process, the Republicans face a conundrum. They are caught between nominating a "true" conservative as against someone who can win and make Obama a one-term president. That is, they face a trade-off: those who meet the conviction test and so can get nominated are those least likely to be able to defeat President Obama. Unfortunately for the Republicans, there is no one out there who meets both criteria.
The Republican Party is facing this dilemma because it is being manhandled by the tea party movement. That right-wing of the Republican Party is imposing a litmus test – a demonstrated passion for small government, balanced budgets and lower taxes. They believe with some justification that electing those 89 new Republican Congressmen gives them the right to demand that the presidential nominee reflect their ideology.
Parsing the polls in this election has consistently demonstrated this split: Mitt Romney gets his constant 25% on the basis of the fact that he is, after flip-flopping, a vocal conservative. But he remains moderate enough to leave the New Deal in place and therefore get elected. In effect, the other 75% of Republicans say this is not enough and vote for "anybody but Romney." They believe he has neither the conviction nor the passionate intensity to deserve the nomination.
That anti-Romney vote then again splits with 50% going to a pack of unelectables and 25% going to whoever is the latest entry phenomenon. One after another, candidates as far-fetched as Donald Trump or as unwilling as Chris Christie have entered or been dragged into the polling process. The "hopeful vote" then makes up an immediate 30%. The hopeful are then disappointed and the candidate drops out completely or joins the pack of unelectables.
First, let's go through the unelectables, most of whom are full of passionate intensity almost as much as they are full of themselves. Michele Bachmann has the conviction, but has proven herself something of a flake. Herman Cain may be leading in the polls but serious people consider him a huckster. Newt Gingrich is yesterday's news. Sarah Palin now appears never to have had either conviction or passion. Ron Paul flashes with the passion of truth and logic but, because he is so honest, he will never get more than his 10-15% of those diehard libertarians. Rick Santorum is probably running to keep right-to-life alive in the party.
Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty are out of step with the Republican zeitgeist and do not meet the conviction test for nomination. All three could be positioning themselves to be viable in 2016.
That leaves the two real front runners, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. Romney may be one of the best but, as far as the right wing and many others are concerned, he lacks all conviction. His tenacity in seeking the presidency may have been proven. But he is running, as he states, primarily because "I want to be president." There is no passion for the chase; there is no killer instinct. He has the charisma of a Tom Dewey. Despite his flip-flopping on virtually everything, he is the default candidate the Republicans are left with. And he and Rick Perry are the only ones presidential in presentation and experience.
Rick Perry, on the positive side, has never lost a political race. In the process, he defeated some of the best politicians and campaigners Texas had to offer, including Ann Richardson and Jim Hightower. He has won, not because anybody loves him but because he is an intense campaigner who has a very real and effective killer instinct. To win Mitt Romney will have to get very nasty, very fast and given his character and history that seems problematical.
On the negative side, Perry may still be new to the campaign but when he was challenged in the Republican debates, he failed the test. He could be in a class with Sarah Palin who was also a popular governor who won elections. They would then have to be careful when letting him out on his own.
Romney is among the best but lacks all conviction. Perry is the worst, full of passionate intensity. It is still Barack Obama's to lose.
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