Losing In the War with Iran

War with Iran presents an existential threat to the status of America as a military and economic superpower. And we're letting the Israelis and the Washington neocons goad us into it

First, the only place in the world where America still has superpower responsibilities is in the Middle East. If America cannot maintain stability there, it cannot claim to be a military superpower. And we do make that claim

In 1980, in response to the Iranian Islamic revolution and the invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union, America proclaimed the "Carter Doctrine" which holds that any attempt by an outside power to gain control of the Persian Gulf would be considered an assault on the vital interests of America and would be repelled by any means necessary.

The Israelis are the ones pushing for war. Prime Minister Netanyahu is certain that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon with the specific purpose of annihilating Israel. He believes that a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is necessary to prevent that. Not everyone, even in Israel, agrees with him. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta says the Iranians are not yet developing a bomb but so far only the means to make one.

The Israelis are wrong about Iran. If Iran were to use a nuclear weapon on Israel, the Israelis, with their 200 nuclear weapons, would obliterate Iran with world approval. The Iranians are not that stupid or suicidal. There is no way a military attack by the United States on Iranian nuclear facilities can enhance the stability or security of the area.

On the other hand, if the United States were to carry out an attack, or condone an Israeli attack, on Iranian nuclear facilities, the war would quickly expand to include continuing airstrikes, special ops raids and ground warfare for control of the Strait of Hormuz. We are in a quagmire, superpower status is lost and we suffer the justified opprobrium of the rest of the world.

A new sort of war,covert and economic, already exists. The United States is trying to mollify Israel by waging a war of economic sanctions, cyber attacks, lurking drones and (probably with Israel) assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists. Iran, for its part, is supplying training, weapons and financial support to Hezbollah and other terrorist groups opposing and firing rockets into Israel.

This looks frighteningly like Iraq all over again. You start with nonexistent weapons of mass destruction and then throw in accusations of an evil and unstable dictator. Finally, you propose a nice quick war that would remove the threat and demonstrate US power. This is the mistake that the Bush Administration made in March 2003. Only the disaster will be worse since we would have no allies, except Israel, and active opposition from a capable and determined enemy. The Middle East and much of the world would rise against us.

Second, America's economic superpower status depends on the status of the dollar as the world reserve and transaction currency. This semi-war is undermining the status of the dollar and our economy..

All sovereign nations must hold dollars to manage their currency and to pay for imports of commodities virtually all of which, like oil, are priced and paid for in dollars. The United States accrues huge economic benefits from that status. China, Russia, and Euroland have stated repeatedly that they would prefer an alternate currency or basket of currencies. This war and its sanctions are hastening that day.

The economic sanctions have forced a sharp drop in the value of the Iranian currency, the Rial. But that devaluation will increase Iranian exports, strengthen their economy and reduce unemployment. Not quite what was intended!

The most recent sanctions deny Iran the use of the international banking system. Iran is, therefore, switching its trade accounts out of dollars and into rials and rubles with Russia, yuan with China and yen with Japan. For when it wants to use dollars, it has set up a shadow banking system using paper currency rather than bank accounts. This spreads the use of alternative currencies in international transactions and undermines the economic superpower status of the dollar.

Geography, history, economics and religion all dictate that Iran will always be an important power in the Middle East. America should recognize the reality of Iran's natural leadership role and the fact that it has little interest in Israel except as a means to demonstrate its devotion to Islam.

War with Iran is about the dumbest thing we could do. Minor note: war in the Strait of Hormuz (20% of the flow of world oil) would give us $200 a barrel oil and economic chaos. We should in fact do the opposite: ally ourselves with the Iranians people before Russia and China grab that prize.

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