Wednesday, October 24, 2012

A Debatable Future



So, why do the two men who aspire to leadership of the "greatest country in the world" bicker over soundbites and make petty, out-of-context misquotes? President Obama and Gov. Romney should be using this election campaign to compare solutions to the problem of managing our future or just getting past our present mess. Very bright possibilities are being put in doubt.

In 1930, in the depths of the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes wrote an essay entitled "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren." He prophesied that in 2030: "… for the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem – how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares,… to live wisely and agreeably and well." Nothing inevitable now stands in the way of that. Maybe I should say, except our gridlocked politics and our own gumption.

The debate on foreign-policy on Monday night demonstrated how disconnected our politics have become from reality. The moderator asked Pres. Obama and Gov. Romney what they thought was the greatest threat to the United States. The answer was terror and a nuclear Iran.

Think about that! The war on terror is one of the greatest missteps of the Bush administration. The overreaction to a criminal act by a small group of men turned our country on its head and gave Al Qaeda exactly the war they wanted. And that's supposed to be our greatest threat?

Similarly, with Iran, we are permitting Israeli paranoia to drive our relationships in the most volatile region in the world. We babble fearfully about a nuclear Iran when we have inspectors crawling all over their nuclear sites on a monthly basis. It's Iraq and weapons of mass destruction all over again.

What is our greatest threat? Actually, we have no threat that deserves the word great. Nor is there a military threat that deserves the $1 trillion per year defense establishment that we have. Nor is there any economic threat from China that deserves starting a trade war. Any future is possible.

Nowhere in the debates has there been a mention of Africa, Latin America, India, Europe or Southeast Asia. Are we withdrawing from leadership when these are exactly the places where political and economic alliances are needed? China and the EU are competing for sub-Saharan Africa. Japan and Russia moved into Latin America during the eight years Bush wasn't watching. America is dangerously absent and no one is talking about it.

The national debate we should have had did not happen. The issues raised by Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party are being ignored. Instead we're gridlocked with no agreement on the basic facts or nature of the problems. Worst of all, we are losing respect for each other and that is something we have to regain. Instead of having a real debate, we ignored anything of substance to obsess over the national debt and fear of a Greek-like default.

So long as America carries its debts in its own currency, the dollar, it can print as many dollars as it wants and pay off any debt that it has. In addition, as long as there are idle resources, like 20 million unemployed, there is no fear of inflation or other unintended consequences. Forbes magazine (hardly a liberal source) says: "there is 0% chance that the US will be forced to default on the debt." Forbes got "a few folks [mostly economists] from across the political spectrum" including Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, to agree publicly that default is impossible.

If anything economic is a threat and worth debating, it is the fear of the national debt. The politicians, Republicans or Democrats, have locked themselves into the "fiscal cliff" of spending cuts and tax increases that are due to go into effect automatically on January 1, 2013if no agreement is reached earlier.

But it is neither necessary nor appropriate to worry about the debt and the deficit when our economy is still in a Great Recession. President Obama wisely dismissed the fiscal cliff with "it's not going to happen," which was probably the best line of the debate. But tens of millions of people immediately wanted to ask "why not?" Unfortunately, the American people were not invited to be part of that conversation.

The distortions and debatable issues in our economic and political life, e.g., inequality of income and wealth, money in politics and our hyper-expensive health care system, are serious and we have to address them in an open, honest, respectful way. That's what this election was supposed to be about. Instead, the politicians and their campaign gurus carefully avoided anything that might be important to anyone. The whole thing was a sham. It is deeply disappointing that we let them get away with this.

Yet there is nothing inevitable in the way of a very bright future. Our grandchildren should be able to "live wisely and agreeably and well."

1 comment:

Unknown said...

I always felt that the federal deficit was a somewhat overblown issue and a political pawn. Too many people equate it to their own checkbook because that is a simple analogy. I appreciate the author’s insight.
One hypothetical way to eliminate the debt could be that the government redeems all notes, bonds and debt paper and exchange the debt for US currency. Inflation would increase disproportionately because the wealthy would get most of the cash and have nowhere to spend or invest it. Then we might have real trickledown economics as the excess money would have to be spent somewhere.
The average citizen that holds few treasury notes, bonds etc. would be at a disadvantage but that would only put pressure on business owners to not raise prices beyond what the typical Wal-Mart shopper can afford. I don’t know if the post WWI Germany inflation would be able to occur if the country’s paper money was all concentrated in the hands of the wealthy.