The Shutdown: What Does It Mean?

What was that all about in Washington these past three weeks? Actually, not very much. On the surface the Tea Party forced the Republicans to impose a partial government shutdown in a losing confrontation with Pres. Obama. This was supposedly an attempt to defund the Affordable Care Act or defund the government in general. Of course, the shutdown had nothing to do with either of those issues. Something more primal was going on. And that is worth examining. In the simplest terms, this confrontation is merely the latest reflection of the very old division within the coalition that is the Republican Party. The Tea Party faction is made up of the dedicated conservatives who want small government in order to protect personal freedom. The opposing faction, the traditional Republicans, is the American business community which shares the desire for small government to profit from less regulation and lower taxes. This division is a well-known part of Republican history. It is Taft versus Dewey, Goldwater versus Rockefeller, Reagan versus Ford and, most recently, Rand versus Romney. It is the business community versus the supply-side theorists, the country club conservatives versus the social conservatives. In this latest dust up it was Sen. Ted Cruz versus Speaker John Boehner – the ideologue versus the pragmatist. This division is permanent. It will show up again in the presidential election of 2016. The Cruz-Tea Party wing of the Republicans are quite ready to be extreme and disruptive. After all, it was Goldwater who said: "Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. And moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue." And another member of that faction, Gov. Perry of Texas, once said "Maybe it's time to have some provocative language in this country," after he called Social Security a "Ponzi" scheme and "monstrous lie." So if we sometimes hear extreme language or have to put up with extreme behavior, we should expect it. It's in their DNA. In a second explanation, the Tea Party really does believe that Obamacare is a giant step toward socialism and the end of American democratic capitalism. The attempt to defund Obamacare is just one more step in their ongoing program to reverse government regulation, the power of unions, and the whole the New Deal. The Tea Party sees Obamacare as an obvious attempt to buy votes with programs that support minorities and people of color, not the poor. The Tea Party is ideological, that is, value-driven. They do what they have to do and if that costs them elections, safe seats or perceptions of stupidity, so be it. On the other hand, the Democrats and Pres. Obama are seen as the big winners in this shutdown crisis. Well, not as much as you would think. The entire encounter was framed in terms of Tea Party or Republican goals. Pres. Obama was never negotiating for gains but merely to hold on to what he had. The president purports to have an agenda: a farm bill, immigration and a budget deal but none of these ever came up. The rescinding of the sequestration cuts in federal spending were never on the table either. The budget discussion is again part of the Republican move to starve the federal government. It is their agenda. The sequestration includes automatic spending cuts of $1.1 trillion over approximately 8 years. To anyone with any respect for economic theory, this is idiotic. It is the European austerity program that has been such a complete failure there and that promises to maintain a slow economy here. The CBO estimates that the sequestration cuts will reduce US economic growth from 2.0% to 1.4% and cost 750,000 jobs. And this is the "important work" for which Obama wants "willing partners!" Finally, we should look at the whole political picture, particularly as it is playing out in the state governments. At that level, the Republicans are very strong. Traditionally, advocates of programs that lost in Washington, turn to the states. That is what both parties are now doing in the face of Washington gridlock . The Democrats have been successful at the state level on gay marriage, green chemicals, legalization of marijuana, climate change and genetically modified food. But Republicans who control many more state governments are winning in the states what they can't get in Washington. These include issues that serve both the Tea Party and business factions: attacks on voter rights, on universal healthcare, on union rights, on education, on women's right to choose and immigration. Reports of the death of the Republican Party are greatly exaggerated. The Republican Party has an established institutionalized base in the states. It can afford to lose big battles in Washington if it can maintain that state level base. So don't write off the Republicans. They came out of this shutdown better than anyone is willing to admit.