Happy New Year 2008

2008 is going to be a doozy and so it deserves a preview.

Politically, the campaign for president will be the most contentious, down and dirty brawl we have had in a century. Economically, we face a recession and the popping of the double bubble (housing and credit). Militarily, we botched the war but we are not about to leave Iraq. This column talks about the politics of 2008. The next column will deal with the economy and the war.

The relentless political drama of this year will shortly hit its first high point in January in Iowa and New Hampshire. The next peak will be Super Tuesday, February 5, when 22 states vote or caucus. If no candidate locks up a majority, then in March and April it will be Ohio and Pennsylvania, respectively.

Finally, on to the conventions in August and the campaign through to November.

During this overlong next 10 months, candidates will bombard us with $1 billion worth of campaigning. And that does not include the (right and left) wing nuts who will be spending huge amounts of special interest money spewing their respective brands of hate.

So far neither party has anyone who has gotten out ahead. Nor are there issues that clearly separate the candidates and at the same time appeal to a majority of the partisan, primary voters. On the war, for instance, the Republicans all support the president's position while the Democrats all agree on some kind of drawdown. The campaigns are apparently being reduced to a personality contest.

The Republicans are not happy with any of their candidates, almost all of whom are embracing the Bush presidency despite its low standing in the polls. The party stalwarts are looking for a white knight. First, Fred Thompson was going to be the new Reagan but now Mike Huckabee is having his time in the spotlight. Huckabee is unlikely to fade as fast as Thompson did; he has too much wit and charm from his pulpit time for that. Besides, next to Ron Paul, Huckabee looks downright mainstream.

The Democrats, on the other hand, like all of their candidates and the campaign is being reduced to a question of personality and electability. The Democrats, with their penchant for gambling away a winning hand, are going to ask the voters to choose a woman or an African-American, an Hispanic, a Southern populist or a couple of old senatorial warhorses.

Politics are already rancorous and partisan but adding the ugliness of a race and/or gender bias will make it explosive. In any event history is going to be made.

The timing of the primaries, stretching through April, are what will make this hodgepodge relentless, especially if the contest goes beyond Super Tuesday, which I think it will.

One month later, March 4, Ohio, along with Texas and a couple of small states, have their primary. The next primary of any consequence does not occur for six weeks and it is in Pennsylvania.

If by March no one has a committed majority, all of the candidates will divide their time that month between Ohio and Texas. Then for the next six weeks they will be stomping all the cities and back roads of Pennsylvania. They will go into coal mines, stand in front of the closed steel mills, and generally press the flesh at every church, union hall or street corner in Pennsylvania.

If that happens and you really want to shake hands with Bill Clinton, hear Barack Obama, question Mitt Romney or have your picture taken with John McCain, they will be here, even in Lebanon, several times during that long six-week period. They will be most pleased to oblige you.

For the first time in decades, both parties face the possibility of a convention actually deciding who will be the nominee. The problem is that these conventions are no longer designed to do that so the whole process could get really messy. The craziness that could ensue will test the mettle of all the candidates and their parties.

The chances of actually coming undecided to those late primaries or even a brokered convention are slim but real. We have a pretty good idea who the candidates are and what their positions are. The only way a candidate could break away into the lead is for two or three others to stumble seriously, which is possible but unlikely for seasoned candidates.

Finally, from August to November we will concentrate on electing a president. However much is at stake and however much you might want otherwise, the last 10 years tells us to expect that debate to be partisan and even malicious. To quote Governor Mike Huckabee: "We are better than that."